PRCUA President and Controller Attended Mid-year Meeting
of the NFCA Investment Section on May 1, 2009

Emily Kurda (center) with Dr. Donald Ratajczak (left), consulting economist for Morgan Keegan & Co. with President Ozog (right).

President Ozog and PRCUA Controller, Emily Kurda, attended the Mid-year meeting of the NFCA Investment Section at the Chicago Millennium Knickerbocker  Hotel on Thursday April 30 and May 1. One of the Speakers was Dr. Donald Ratajczak. Dr. Ratajczak was born and raised in Manayunk, PA (a community enclave in Philadelphia).

Dr. Ratajczak started his presentation by saying that he has not missed the greatest recession of our time. It is now still taking place. Many are speculating when the recession will end. The Consumer Price Index is the lowest its been in 5 years.

He relies on 4 indicators that will give him the clue as to the end of the recession. Inventory Sales Ratio. Now in the second quarter, it shows some improvements. In late 2008, decline in sales took place and was very abrupt. At that time manufactures did not cut production in the fourth quarter.

The second indicator is wealth. We as a country took out 15% of the average wealth. Real Assets, which is our home, was turning negative in the fourth quarter and continues to be negative in the first quarter of this year. March 9 was the lowest point of the stock Market. After that it started to move up. It continues even in the second quarter to move positive.

An unfilled order was the third indicator he follows very closely. This information comes out in the Durable Goods Report. It declined 38% in capital spending in the fourth quarter and has been in decline since then and is still negative. Capital spending will be slow.

Initial Unemployment Claims is the fourth indicator. This report is still going up and is a lagging indicator. Job losses are still there. Hospital employment is starting to fall. Who has the money to pay for their hospital and doctor bills?

His detail reports and commentary could be found on the www.MorganKeegan.com web site. The Executive Officers and the Controller at the home office reviewed his comments.